Aliyev’s Melian Dialog
For international affairs people, referencing Thucydides is a huge cliche, but i’ll be a son of a bitch if this doesn't fit damn near perfect.
Thucydides was an Athenian general in the 4th century BC. He wrote a history of the wars between Athens and Sparta. It is a fundamental text in history and political science. One section recounts a conversation between the Athenians and the neutral island Melos.
Athens demands the Melians pay tribute and join them in their war with Sparta.
The Melians say, they are neutral and no threat to Athens, that Athens has no need to fight them and can sail past. Athens responds, while that may be true, what would other people think if they saw me not conquer you? I would look weak.
The Melians say, if you attack us, it will alarm other neutral city states who will in turn threaten you. Athens disagrees as they are more concerned with discontent from within their empire than from abroad. Defeating you will show my internal enemies I am strong.
The Melians say they have pride and must put up a fight. The Athenians say to be serious and value your lives.
The Melians say, there is still a chance that they could defeat Athens. Athens again encourages them to value their lives.
The Melians say the gods are on their side. Athens says the gods will not stop the strong from defeating the weak.
The Melians say their distant allies will come to their aid. Athens says, no they won't, its not worth it for them.
In the end, the Melians refuse Athens request to surrender. Athens leaves the conversation suprised by the Melians' delusions.
Athens sieges the island, kills the men and enslaves the women.
Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev read his Thucydides. 2400 years after Athens defeated the Melians, Azerbaijan concluded its military offensive against the self‑declared Republic of Artsakh. Armed with an infinite cash glitch, Aliyev bought Israeli and Turkish weapons systems. He developed his military and bid his time. When he struck, two decades of procurement overwhelmed isolated Artsakh.
Azerbaijan, with a stronger military, had no patience for negotiation. They offered Artsakh an ultimatum: surrender and become reintegrated.
The Artsakhi argue that they are on their ancestral lands that Azerbaijan has no reason to be there. Azerbaijan counters that the world recognizes the land as theirs. They would look weak globally and at home if they did not press their claim. Azerbaijanis would think, if Aliyev is too weak to reintegrate the territory, why should he lead?
The Artsakhi imply that an invasion will cause international outrage. That the international community will intervene in a way hostile to Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan observes that the regional and global powers are unlikely to intervene as they are too invested in Azerbaijan. What worries Azerbaijan is potential rebellion from within. Disgruntled people who would threaten the Aliyev family's dominance of the state. Conquering Artsakh demonstrates the Aliyev family's strength and discourage rebellions.
The Artsakhi contend that it would be shameful of them to submit without a fight. Azerbaijan responds that the Artsakhi are not facing a fair fight. They will lose. They will suffer not mere shame but annihilation.
The Artsakhi concede that although Azerbaijan is stronger, there is still a chance that they could win. Azerbaijan replies that the Artsakhi should not indulge in hope. The odds of winning are so small, and the consequences of defeat so terrible. If the Artsakhi resist they will die.
The Artsakhi claim that they have the favor of god. Azerbaijan shrugs.
The Artsakhi dream that America and France will come to their defense. Azerbaijan doubts America and France care enough to risk intervention. Adding that Turkey, a NATO ally, is supporting Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan express their shock at the Artsakhi’s lack of realism. The Artsakhi do not believe they will be safe under Azerbaijani rule and the entire population of 120,000 leave their homes.